Forecast combination improves upon the component forecasts. Most often, combination approaches are restricted to the linear setting only. However, theory shows that if the component forecasts are neutrally dispersed—a requirement for probabilistic calibration—linear forecast combination will only increase dispersion and thus lead to miscalibration. Furthermore, the accuracy of the component forecasts may vary over time and the combination weights should vary accordingly, necessitating updates as time progresses. In this paper, we develop an online version of the beta-transformed linear pool, which theoretically can transform the probabilistic forecasts such that they are neutrally dispersed. We show that, in case of stationary synthetic time series, the performance of the developed method converges to that of the optimal combination in hindsight. Moreover, in case of nonstationary real-world time series from a wind farm in mid-west France, the developed model outperforms the optimal combination in hindsight.

The safe and efficient execution of offshore operations requires short-term (1 to 6 hours ahead) high-quality probabilistic forecasts of metocean variables. The development areas for offshore wind projects, potentially in high depths, make it difficult to gather measurement data. This paper explores the use of deep learning for wind speed forecasting at an unobserved offshore location. The proposed convolutional architecture jointly exploits coastal measurements and numerical weather predictions to emulate multivariate probabilistic short-term forecasts. We explore both Gaussian and non-Gaussian neural representations using normalizing flows. We benchmark these approaches with respect to state-of-art data-driven schemes, including analog methods and quantile forecasting. The performance of the models, and resulting forecast quality, are analyzed in terms of probabilistic calibration, probabilistic and deterministic metrics, and as a function of weather situations. We report numerical experiments for a real case-study off the French Mediterranean coast. Our results highlight the role of regional numerical weather prediction and coastal in situ measurement in the performance of the post-processing. For single-valued forecasts, a 40\% decrease in RMSE is observed compared to the direct use of numerical weather predictions. Significant skill improvements are also obtained for the probabilistic forecasts, in terms of various scores, as well as an acceptable probabilistic calibration. The proposed architecture can process a large amount of heterogeneous input data, and offers a versatile probabilistic framework for multivariate forecasting.

Machine learning tasks are vulnerable to the quality of data used as input. Yet, it is often challenging for firms to obtain adequate datasets, with them being naturally distributed amongst owners, that in practice, may be competitors in a downstream market and reluctant to share information. Focusing on supervised learning for regression tasks, we develop a regression market to provide a monetary incentive for data sharing. Our proposed mechanism adopts a Bayesian framework, allowing us to consider a more general class of regression tasks. We present a thorough exploration of the market properties, and show that similar proposals in current literature expose the market agents to sizeable financial risks, which can be mitigated in our probabilistic setting.

In many areas of industry and society, e.g., energy, healthcare, logistics, agents collect vast amounts of data that they deem proprietary. These data owners extract predictive information of varying quality and relevance from data depending on quantity, inherent information content and their own technical expertise. Aggregating these data and heterogeneous predictive skills, which are distributed in terms of ownership, can result in a higher collective value for a prediction task. In this paper, we envision a platform for improving predictions via implicit pooling of private information in return for possible remuneration. Specifically, we design a wagering-based forecast elicitation market platform, where a buyer intending to improve their forecasts posts a prediction task, and sellers respond to it with their forecast reports and wagers. This market delivers an aggregated forecast to the buyer (pre event) and allocates a payoff to the sellers (post-event) for their contribution. We propose a payoff mechanism and prove that it satisfies several desirable economic properties, including those specific to electronic platforms. Furthermore, we discuss the properties of the forecast aggregation operator and scoring rules to emphasise their effect on the sellers’ payoff. Finally, we provide numerical examples to illustrate the structure and properties of the proposed market platform.

Should the organization, design and functioning of electricity markets be taken for granted? Definitely not. While decades of evolution of electricity markets in developed countries made us believe that we may have found the right and future-proof model, the substantially and rapidly evolving context of our power and energy systems is challenging this idea in many ways. Actually, that situation brings both challenges and opportunities. Challenges include accommodation of renewable energy generation, decentralization and support to investment, while opportunities are mainly that advances in technical and social sciences provide us with many more options in terms of future market design. We here take a holistic point of view, by trying to understand where we are coming from with electricity markets and where we may be going. Future electricity markets should be made fit for purpose by considering them as a way to organize and operate a socio-techno-economic system.

As prosumers and energy communities gain prominence in power systems, energy trading between prosumers in local P2P markets is paramount. Within this novel market design, peers can directly exchange energy with each other, leading to economic advantages while supporting the decarbonization of the sector. To ensure that voltage and congestion issues are properly addressed, a thorough coordination between the P2P market and the Distribution System Operator is required. This paper presents and compares three mutual-benefit coordination methods. The first method entails applying product differentiation on an iterative basis to avoid exceeding the lines thermal limits, which is performed through penalties on P2P exchanges that may be overloading the network. The second method uses the P2P market with an AC-OPF, ensuring network operation through a flexibility market via upward and downward flexibility. The last one proposes an integrated operation of the P2P market with AC-OPF. All methods are assessed in a typical distribution network with high prosumers integration. The results show that the second method is the one that, fulfilling the network constraints, presents greater social welfare.

We propose and develop a new algorithm for trading wind energy in electricity markets, within an online learning and optimization framework. In particular, we combine a component-wise adaptive variant of the gradient descent algorithm with recent advances in the feature-driven newsvendor model. This results in an online offering approach capable of leveraging data-rich environments, while adapting to the nonstationary characteristics of energy generation and electricity markets, also with a minimal computational burden. The performance of our approach is analyzed based on several numerical experiments, showing both better adaptability to nonstationary uncertain parameters and significant economic gains.

Permanently increasing penetration of converter-interfaced generation and renewable energy sources (RESs) makes modern electrical power systems more vulnerable to low probability and high impact events, such as extreme weather, which could lead to severe contingencies, even blackouts. These contingencies can be further propagated to neighbouring energy systems over coupling components/technologies and consequently negatively influence the entire multi-energy system (MES) (such as gas, heating and electricity) operation and its resilience. In recent years, machine learning-based techniques (MLBTs) have been intensively applied to solve various power system problems, including system planning, or security and reliability assessment. This paper aims to review MES resilience quantification methods and the application of MLBTs to assess the resilience level of future sustainable energy systems. The open research questions are identified and discussed, whereas the future research directions are identified.

We propose a new forward electricity market framework that admits heterogeneous market participants with second-order cone strategy sets, who accurately express the nonlinearities in their costs and constraints through conic bids, and a network operator facing conic operational constraints. In contrast to the prevalent linear-programming-based electricity markets, we highlight how the inclusion of second-order cone constraints improves uncertainty-, asset-, and network-awareness of the market, which is key to the successful transition towards an electricity system based on weather-dependent renewable energy sources. We analyze our general market-clearing proposal using conic duality theory to derive efficient spatially-differentiated prices for the multiple commodities, comprised of energy and flexibility services. Under the assumption of perfect competition, we prove the equivalence of the centrally-solved market-clearing optimization problem to a competitive spatial price equilibrium involving a set of rational and self-interested participants and a price setter. Finally, under common assumptions, we prove that moving towards conic markets does not incur the loss of desirable economic properties of markets, namely market efficiency, cost recovery, and revenue adequacy. Our numerical studies focus on the specific use case of uncertainty-aware market design and demonstrate that the proposed conic market brings advantages over existing alternatives within the linear programming market framework.

The increasing penetration of electric vehicles brings a consequent increase in charging facilities in the low-voltage electricity network. Serving all charging requests on-demand can endanger the safety of the electrical power distribution network. This creates the issue of fairly allocating the charging energy among electric vehicles while maintaining the system within safe operational margins. However, calculating efficient charging schedules for the charging stations bears a high computational burden due to the non-convexities of charging stations’ models. In this paper, we consider a tri-level system with electric vehicles, charging stations, and a power distribution system operator. The objective of each station is formulated as a max-min fairness, mixed-integer linear optimisation problem, while the network constraints are modelled using a second-order conic formulation. In order to tackle the computational complexity of the problem, we decompose it and use a novel approximation method tailored to this problem. We compare the performance of the proposed method with that of the popular alternating direction method of multipliers. Our simulation results indicate that the proposed method achieves a near-optimal solution along with promising scalability properties.

Renewable energy generation is offered through electricity markets, quite some time in advance. This then leads to a problem of decision-making under uncertainty, which may be seen as a newsvendor problem. Contrarily to the conventional case for which underage and overage penalties are known, such penalties in the case of electricity markets are unknown, and difficult to estimate. In addition, one is actually only penalized for either overage or underage, not both. Consequently, we look at a slightly different form of a newsvendor problem, for a price-taker participant offering in electricity markets, which we refer to as Bernoulli newsvendor problem. After showing that its solution is consistent with that for the classical newsvendor problem, we then introduce distributionally robust versions, with ambiguity possibly about both the probabilistic forecasts for power generation and the chance of success of the Bernoulli variable. Both versions of the distributionally robust Bernoulli newsvendor problem admit closed-form solutions. We finally use simulation studies, as well as a real-world case-study application, to illustrate the workings and benefits from the approach.

Compared with large-scale physical batteries, aggregated and coordinated generic energy storage (GES) resources provide low-cost, but uncertain, flexibility for power grid operations.While GES can be characterized by different types of uncertainty, the literature mostly focuses on decision-independent uncertainties (DIUs), such as exogenous stochastic disturbances caused by weather conditions. Instead, this manuscript focuses on newly-introduced decision-dependent uncertainties (DDUs) and considers an optimal GES dispatch that accounts for uncertain available state-of-charge (SoC) bounds that are affected by incentive signals and discomfort levels. To incorporate DDUs, we present a novel chance-constrained optimization (CCO) approach for the day-ahead economic dispatch of GES units. Two tractable methods are presented to solve the proposed CCO problem with DDUs: (i) a robust reformulation for general but incomplete distributions of DDUs, and (ii) an iterative algorithm for specific and known distributions of DDUs. Furthermore, reliability indices are introduced to verify the applicability of the proposed approach with respect to the reliability of the response of GES units. Simulation-based analysis shows that the proposed methods yield conservative, but credible,GES dispatch strategies and reduced penalty cost by incorporating DDUs in the constraints and leveraging data-driven parameter identification. This results in improved availability and performance of coordinated GES units.

Distributed data refers to information that flows from different sources and possibly different owners. Getting top value from distributed data requires a paradigm shift towards collaborative forecasting. Alternative frameworks exist to support collaborative forecasting, from collaborative analytics to data markets, and from analytics markets to prediction markets. While we should accept that not all data will be openly shared, rethinking forecasting processes with modern communication, distributed computation, and a market component could yield substantial improvements in forecast quality while unleashing new business models

Energy forecasting has attracted enormous attention over the last few decades, with novel proposals related to the use of heterogeneous data sources, probabilistic forecasting, online learning, etc. A key aspect that emerged is that learning and forecasting may highly benefit from distributed data, though not only in the geographical sense. That is, various agents collect and own data that may be useful to others. In contrast to recent proposals that look into distributed and privacy-preserving learning (incentive-free), we explore here a framework called regression markets. There, agents aiming to improve their forecasts post a regression task, for which other agents may contribute by sharing their data for their features and get monetarily rewarded for it. The market design is for regression models that are linear in their parameters, and possibly separable, with estimation performed based on either batch or online learning. Both in-sample and out-of-sample aspects are considered, with markets for fitting models in-sample, and then for improving genuine forecasts out-of-sample. Such regression markets rely on recent concepts within interpretability of machine learning approaches and cooperative game theory, with Shapley additive explanations. Besides introducing the market design and proving its desirable properties, application results are shown based on simulation studies (to highlight the salient features of the proposal) and with real-world case studies.