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Continuous and distribution-free probabilistic wind power forecasting: A conditional normalizing flow approach

2022ArticleJournal paper
H. Wen, P. Pinson, J. Ma, J. Gu, Z. Jin
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 13(4), pp. 2250-2263
Publication year: 2022

We present a data-driven approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting based on conditional normalizing flow (CNF). In contrast with the existing, this approach is distribution-free (as for non-parametric and quantile-based approaches) and can directly yield continuous probability densities, hence avoiding quantile crossing. It relies on a base distribution and a set of bijective mappings. Both the shape parameters of the base distribution and the bijective mappings are approximated with neural networks. Spline-based conditional normalizing flow is considered owing to its non-affine characteristics. Over the training phase, the model sequentially maps input examples onto samples of base distribution, given the conditional contexts, where parameters are estimated through maximum likelihood. To issue probabilistic forecasts, one eventually maps samples of the base distribution into samples of a desired distribution. Case studies based on open datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and allows us to discuss its advantages and caveats with respect to the state of the art.

An asynchronous online negotiation mechanism for real-time peer-to-peer electricity markets

2022ArticleJournal paper
Z. Guo, P. Pinson, S. Chen, Q. Yang, Z. Yang
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 37(3), pp. 1868-1880
Publication year: 2022

A network-aware market mechanism for decentralized district heating systems

2022ArticleJournal paper
L. Frölke, T. Sousa, P. Pinson
Applied Energy 36, art. no. 117956
Publication year: 2022

A market for trading forecasts: A wagering mechanism

2022ArticleJournal paperPreprint
A. Raja, J. Kazempour, P. Pinson, S. Grammatico
preprint, under review
Publication year: 2022

In many areas of industry and society, e.g., energy, healthcare, logistics, agents collect vast amounts of data that they deem proprietary. These data owners extract predictive information of varying quality and relevance from data depending on quantity, inherent information content and their own technical expertise. Aggregating these data and heterogeneous predictive skills, which are distributed in terms of ownership, can result in a higher collective value for a prediction task. In this paper, we envision a platform for improving predictions via implicit pooling of private information in return for possible remuneration. Specifically, we design a wagering-based forecast elicitation market platform, where a buyer intending to improve their forecasts posts a prediction task, and sellers respond to it with their forecast reports and wagers. This market delivers an aggregated forecast to the buyer (pre event) and allocates a payoff to the sellers (post-event) for their contribution. We propose a payoff mechanism and prove that it satisfies several desirable economic properties, including those specific to electronic platforms. Furthermore, we discuss the properties of the forecast aggregation operator and scoring rules to emphasise their effect on the sellers’ payoff. Finally, we provide numerical examples to illustrate the structure and properties of the proposed market platform.

What do prosumer marginal utility functions look like? Derivation and analysis

2021ArticleJournal paper
C. Ziras, T. Sousa, P. Pinson
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 36(5), pp. 4322-4330
Publication year: 2021

Transactive energy for flexible prosumers using algorithmic game theory

2021ArticleJournal paper
G. Tsaousoglou, P. Pinson, N. G. Paterakis
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 12(3), pp. 1571-1581
Publication year: 2021

Towards data markets in renewable energy forecasting

2021ArticleJournal paper
C. Goncalves, P. Pinson, R. Bessa
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 12(1), pp. 533-542
Publication year: 2021

Privacy-preserving distributed learning for renewable energy forecasting

2021ArticleJournal paper
C. Goncalves, R. Bessa, P. Pinson
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 12(3), pp. 1777-1787
Publication year: 2021

Price-region bids in electricity markets

2021Article
L. Bobo, L. Mitridati, J.A. Taylor, P. Pinson, J. Kazempour
European Journal of Operational Research 295(3), pp. 1056-1073
Publication year: 2021

Online optimization for real-time peer-to-peer electricity market mechanisms

2021ArticleJournal paper
Z. Guo, P. Pinson, S. Chen, Q. Yang, Z. Yang
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 12(5), pp. 4151-4163
Publication year: 2021

Online forecast reconciliation in wind power prediction

2021ArticleJournal paper
C. Di Modica, P. Pinson, S. Ben Taieb
Electric Power Systems Research 190, art. no. 06637
Publication year: 2021

Online distributed learning in wind power forecasting

2021ArticleJournal paper
B. Sommer, P. Pinson, J.W. Messner, D. Obst
International Journal of Forecasting 37(1), pp. 205-223
Publication year: 2021

Monetizing customer load data for an energy retailer: A cooperative game approach

2021ArticleConference paper
L. Han, P. Pinson, J. Kazempour
Proc. Conference on Probabilistic Methods for Power Systems (PMAPS) 2021
Publication year: 2021

Mechanism design for fair and efficient DSO flexibility markets

2021ArticleJournal paper
G. Tsaousoglou, J. S. Giraldo, P. Pinson, N. G. Paterakis
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 12(3), pp. 2249-2260
Publication year: 2021

Managing distributed flexibility under uncertainty by combining deep learning with duality

2021ArticleJournal paper
G. Tsaousoglou, K. Mitropoulou, K. Steriotis, N. G. Paterakis, P. Pinson, E. Varvarigos
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 12(4), pp. 2195-2204
Publication year: 2021

Forecasting and market design advances

2021ArticleJournal paper
J. Fox, E. Ela, B. Hobbs, J. Sharp, J. Novacheck, A. Motley, R.J. Bessa, P. Pinson, G. Kariniotakis
IEEE Power and Energy Magazine 19(6), pp. 75-85
Publication year: 2021

Energy and reserve dispatch with distributionally robust joint chance constraints

2021ArticleJournal paper
C. Ordoudis, V. A. Nguyen, D. Kuhn, P. Pinson
Operations Research Letters 49(3), pp. 291-299
Publication year: 2021

Electric demand response and bounded rationality – Mean-field control for large populations of heterogeneous bounded-rational agents

2021ArticleJournal paper
A. Marín Radoszynski, P. Pinson
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series A 379(2202), art. no. 20190429
Publication year: 2021

Dynamic reserve and transmission capacity allocation in wind-dominated power systems

2021ArticleJournal paper
N. Viafora, S. Delikaraoglou, P. Pinson, G. Hug, J. Holbøll
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 36(4), pp. 3017-3028
Publication year: 2021

Design and game-theoretical analysis of community-based market mechanisms in heat and electricity systems

2021ArticleJournal paper
L. Mitridati, J. Kazempour, P. Pinson
Omega 99, art no. 102177
Publication year: 2021

Coordination of power and natural gas markets via financial instruments

2021ArticleJournal paper
A. Schwele, C. Ordoudis, P. Pinson, J. Kazempour
Computational Management Systems 18, pp. 505-538
Publication year: 2021

Chance-constrained peer-to-peer joint energy and reserve market based on consensus ADMM

2021ArticleJournal paper
Z. Guo, P. Pinson, S. Chen, Q. Yang, Z. Yang
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 12(1), pp. 798-809
Publication year: 2021

Adaptive generalized logit-Normal distributions for wind power short-term forecasting

2021ArticleConference paper
A. Pierrot, P. Pinson
Proc. Conference on Probabilistic Methods for Power Systems (PMAPS) 2021
Publication year: 2021

A self-adaptive multikernel machine based on Recursive Least-Squares applied to very short-term wind power forecasting

2021ArticleJournal paper
E. C. Bezerra, P. Pinson, R. P. S. Leão, A. P. S. Braga
IEEE Access 9, pp. 104761-104772
Publication year: 2021

A critical overview of privacy-preserving approaches for collaborative forecasting

2021ArticleJournal paper
C. Goncalves, R.J. Bessa, P. Pinson
International Journal of Forecasting 37(1), pp. 322-342
Publication year: 2021