- About me
- Publications
- Ren. in El. Markets
- Module 1 – Fundamentals of electricity markets
- Module 2 – Electricity spot markets (e.g., day-ahead)
- Module 3 – Intra-day and balancing markets
- Module 4 – Ancillary services
- Module 5 – Impact of renewables on electricity markets
- Module 6 – Participation of renewables in electricity markets
- Module 7 – Introduction to renewable energy analytics
- Module 8 – Verification of renewable energy forecasts
- Module 9 – Renewable energy forecasting – First steps
- Module 10 – Renewable energy forecasting – Advanced topics
- Additional industry interviews
- Interviews with former students
- Exercises
- Int. J. Forecasting
- Contact
- Download CV
Pierre Pinson
Chair of Data-centric Design Engineering - Imperial College London
Journal paper
Publication Types:
Regression markets and application to energy forecasting
Energy forecasting has attracted enormous attention over the last few decades, with novel proposals related to the use of heterogeneous data sources, probabilistic forecasting, online learning, etc. A key aspect that emerged is that learning and forecasting may highly benefit from distributed data, though not only in the geographical sense. That is, various agents collect and own data that may be useful to others. In contrast to recent proposals that look into distributed and privacy-preserving learning (incentive-free), we explore here a framework called regression markets. There, agents aiming to improve their forecasts post a regression task, for which other agents may contribute by sharing their data for their features and get monetarily rewarded for it. The market design is for regression models that are linear in their parameters, and possibly separable, with estimation performed based on either batch or online learning. Both in-sample and out-of-sample aspects are considered, with markets for fitting models in-sample, and then for improving genuine forecasts out-of-sample. Such regression markets rely on recent concepts within interpretability of machine learning approaches and cooperative game theory, with Shapley additive explanations. Besides introducing the market design and proving its desirable properties, application results are shown based on simulation studies (to highlight the salient features of the proposal) and with real-world case studies.
Pandemics and forecasting: The way forward through the Taleb-Ioannidis debate
2022ArticleJournal paper
International Journal of Forecasting 38(2), pp. 410-412
Publication year: 2022
North Sea energy islands: Impact on national markets and grids
Multi-stage linear decision rules for stochastic control of natural gas networks with linepack
2022ArticleJournal paper
Electric Power Systems Research 212, art. no. 108388
Publication year: 2022
Forecasting: theory and practice
2022ArticleJournal paper
International Journal of Forecasting 38(3), pp. 705-871
Publication year: 2022
Editorial: Epidemics and forecasting with focus on COVID-19
2022ArticleJournal paper
International Journal of Forecasting 38(2), pp. 407-409
Publication year: 2022
Continuous and distribution-free probabilistic wind power forecasting: A conditional normalizing flow approach
2022ArticleJournal paper
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 13(4), pp. 2250-2263
Publication year: 2022
We present a data-driven approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting based on conditional normalizing flow (CNF). In contrast with the existing, this approach is distribution-free (as for non-parametric and quantile-based approaches) and can directly yield continuous probability densities, hence avoiding quantile crossing. It relies on a base distribution and a set of bijective mappings. Both the shape parameters of the base distribution and the bijective mappings are approximated with neural networks. Spline-based conditional normalizing flow is considered owing to its non-affine characteristics. Over the training phase, the model sequentially maps input examples onto samples of base distribution, given the conditional contexts, where parameters are estimated through maximum likelihood. To issue probabilistic forecasts, one eventually maps samples of the base distribution into samples of a desired distribution. Case studies based on open datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and allows us to discuss its advantages and caveats with respect to the state of the art.
An asynchronous online negotiation mechanism for real-time peer-to-peer electricity markets
2022ArticleJournal paper
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 37(3), pp. 1868-1880
Publication year: 2022
A network-aware market mechanism for decentralized district heating systems
What do prosumer marginal utility functions look like? Derivation and analysis
2021ArticleJournal paper
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 36(5), pp. 4322-4330
Publication year: 2021
Transactive energy for flexible prosumers using algorithmic game theory
2021ArticleJournal paper
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 12(3), pp. 1571-1581
Publication year: 2021
Towards data markets in renewable energy forecasting
2021ArticleJournal paper
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 12(1), pp. 533-542
Publication year: 2021
Privacy-preserving distributed learning for renewable energy forecasting
2021ArticleJournal paper
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 12(3), pp. 1777-1787
Publication year: 2021
Online optimization for real-time peer-to-peer electricity market mechanisms
2021ArticleJournal paper
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 12(5), pp. 4151-4163
Publication year: 2021
Online forecast reconciliation in wind power prediction
Online distributed learning in wind power forecasting
2021ArticleJournal paper
International Journal of Forecasting 37(1), pp. 205-223
Publication year: 2021
Mechanism design for fair and efficient DSO flexibility markets
2021ArticleJournal paper
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid 12(3), pp. 2249-2260
Publication year: 2021
Managing distributed flexibility under uncertainty by combining deep learning with duality
2021ArticleJournal paper
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy 12(4), pp. 2195-2204
Publication year: 2021
Forecasting and market design advances
Energy and reserve dispatch with distributionally robust joint chance constraints
Electric demand response and bounded rationality – Mean-field control for large populations of heterogeneous bounded-rational agents
2021ArticleJournal paper
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Series A 379(2202), art. no. 20190429
Publication year: 2021
Dynamic reserve and transmission capacity allocation in wind-dominated power systems
2021ArticleJournal paper
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 36(4), pp. 3017-3028
Publication year: 2021
Design and game-theoretical analysis of community-based market mechanisms in heat and electricity systems
Coordination of power and natural gas markets via financial instruments