Prediction markets with intermittent contributions
2025Journal paperPreprint
M. Vitali, P. Pinson
preprint, under review
Publication year: 2025
Although both data availability and the demand for accurate forecasts are increasing, collaboration between stakeholders is often constrained by data ownership and competitive interests. In contrast to recent proposals within cooperative game-theoretical frameworks, we place ourselves in a more general framework, based on prediction markets. There, independent agents trade forecasts of uncertain future events in exchange for rewards. We introduce and analyse a prediction market that (i) accounts for the historical performance of the agents, (ii) adapts to time-varying conditions, while (iii) permitting agents to enter and exit the market at will. The proposed design employs robust regression models to learn the optimal forecasts’ combination whilst handling missing submissions. Moreover, we introduce a pay-off allocation mechanism that considers both in-sample and out-of-sample performance while satisfying several desirable economic properties. Case-studies using simulated and real-world data allow demonstrating the effectiveness and adaptability of the proposed market design.
Pooling probabilistic forecasts for cooperative wind power offering
2025ArticleJournal paperPreprint
H. Wen, P. Pinson
preprint, under review
Publication year: 2025
Wind power producers can benefit from forming coalitions to participate cooperatively in electricity markets. To support such collaboration, various profit allocation rules rooted in cooperative game theory have been proposed. However, existing approaches overlook the lack of coherence among producers regarding forecast information, which may lead to ambiguity in offering and allocations. In this paper, we introduce a “reconcile-then-optimize” framework for cooperative market offerings. This framework first aligns the individual forecasts into a coherent joint forecast before determining market offers. With such forecasts, we formulate and solve a two-stage stochastic programming problem to derive both the aggregate offer and the corresponding scenario-based dual values for each trading hour. Based on these dual values, we construct a profit allocation rule that is budget-balanced and stable. Finally, we validate the proposed method through empirical case studies, demonstrating its practical effectiveness and theoretical soundness.
Integrated optimization of operations and capacity planning under uncertainty for drayage procurement in container logistics
2025ArticleJournal paperPreprint
G. Vassos, R.M. Lusby, P. Pinson
preprint, under review
Publication year: 2025
We present an integrated framework for truckload procurement in container logistics, bridging strategic and operational aspects that are often treated independently in existing research. Drayage, the short-haul trucking of containers, plays a critical role in intermodal container logistics. Using dynamic programming, we identify optimal operational policies for allocating drayage volumes among capacitated carriers under uncertain container flows and spot rates. The computational complexity of optimization under uncertainty is mitigated through sample average approximation. These optimal policies serve as the basis for evaluating specific capacity arrangements. To optimize capacity reservations with strategic and spot carriers, we employ an efficient quasiNewton method. Numerical experiments demonstrate significant cost-efficiency improvements, including a 21.2% cost reduction in a four-period scenario. Monte Carlo simulations further highlight the strong generalization capabilities of the proposed joint optimization method across out-of-sample scenarios. These findings underscore the importance of integrating strategic and operational decisions to enhance cost efficiency in truckload procurement under uncertainty.
How long is long enough? Finite-horizon approximation of energy storage scheduling problems
2025ArticleJournal paperPreprint
E. Prat, R. M. Lusby, J. M. Morales, S. Pineda, P. Pinson
preprint, under review
Publication year: 2025
Energy storage scheduling problems, where a storage is operated to maximize its profit in response to a price signal, are essentially infinite-horizon optimization problems as storage systems operate continuously, without a foreseen end to their operation. Such problems can be solved to optimality with a rolling-horizon approach, provided that the planning horizon over which the problem is solved is long enough. Such a horizon is termed a forecast horizon. However, the length of the planning horizon is usually chosen arbitrarily for such applications. We introduce an easy-to-check condition that confirms whether a planning horizon is a forecast horizon, and which can be used to derive a bound on suboptimality when it is not the case. By way of an example, we demonstrate that the existence of forecast horizons is not guaranteed for this problem. We also derive a lower bound on the length of the minimum forecast horizon. We show how the condition introduced can be used as part of an algorithm to determine the minimum forecast horizon of the problem, which ensures the determination of optimal solutions at the lowest computational and forecasting costs. Finally, we provide insights into the implications of different planning horizons for a range of storage system characteristics.
Generalizable simulation framework for the request-to-order process in the procurement of onboard vessel requisitions
2025ArticleJournal paperPreprint
G. Vassos, R.M. Lusby, P. Pinson
preprint, under review
Publication year: 2025
Procurement in maritime logistics faces challenges due to uncertainties in demand and fluctuating market conditions. To address these complexities, we introduce a flexible discrete-event simulation framework that models the request-to-order process. This framework captures critical stages, including the generation of onboard vessel requisitions, requisition handling, and order allocation. Through numerical analysis, we compare two order allocation policies: a naive practice, which relies heavily on contracts, and a dynamic supplier selection approach that explores cost opportunities in the spot market. Our findings reveal trade-offs between cost efficiency and contract compliance, particularly in meeting volume commitments to contracted suppliers. Excessive reliance on spot market opportunities can yield significant savings but at the expense of contract compliance. Additionally, when spot rates are highly sensitive to order quantities, both policies tend to overutilize contracts, highlighting the need for larger volume commitments in such cases. These results offer actionable insights for improving procurement practices, while the framework’s adaptability makes it a powerful decision-support tool across diverse procurement contexts.
Privacy-preserving convex optimization: When differential privacy meets stochastic programming
2023ArticleJournal paperPreprint
V. Dvorkin, F. Fioretto, P. Van Hentenryck, P. Pinson, J. Kazempour
preprint, under review
Publication year: 2023
Convex optimization finds many real-life applications, where – optimized on real data – optimization results may expose private data attributes (e.g., individual health records, commercial information, etc.), thus leading to privacy breaches. To avoid these breaches and formally guarantee privacy to optimization data owners, we develop a new privacy-preserving perturbation strategy for convex optimization programs by combining stochastic (chance-constrained) programming and differential privacy. Unlike standard noise-additive strategies, which perturb either optimization data or optimization results, we express the optimization variables as functions of the random perturbation using linear decision rules; we then optimize these rules to accommodate the perturbation within the problem’s feasible region by enforcing chance constraints. This way, the perturbation is feasible and makes different, yet adjacent in the sense of a given distance function, optimization datasets statistically similar in randomized optimization results, thereby enabling probabilistic differential privacy guarantees. The chance-constrained optimization additionally internalizes the conditional value-at-risk measure to model the tolerance towards the worst-case realizations of the optimality loss with respect to the non-private solution. We demonstrate the privacy properties of our perturbation strategy analytically and through optimization and machine learning applications.