Chance-constrained economic dispatch of generic energy storage under decision-dependent uncertainty
2023ArticleIn press/Available onlineJournal paper
N. Qi, P. Pinson, M. R. Almassalkhi, L. Cheng, Y. Zhuang
IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy, in press/available online
Publication year: 2023
Compared with large-scale physical batteries, aggregated and coordinated generic energy storage (GES) resources provide low-cost, but uncertain, flexibility for power grid operations.While GES can be characterized by different types of uncertainty, the literature mostly focuses on decision-independent uncertainties (DIUs), such as exogenous stochastic disturbances caused by weather conditions. Instead, this manuscript focuses on newly-introduced decision-dependent uncertainties (DDUs) and considers an optimal GES dispatch that accounts for uncertain available state-of-charge (SoC) bounds that are affected by incentive signals and discomfort levels. To incorporate DDUs, we present a novel chance-constrained optimization (CCO) approach for the day-ahead economic dispatch of GES units. Two tractable methods are presented to solve the proposed CCO problem with DDUs: (i) a robust reformulation for general but incomplete distributions of DDUs, and (ii) an iterative algorithm for specific and known distributions of DDUs. Furthermore, reliability indices are introduced to verify the applicability of the proposed approach with respect to the reliability of the response of GES units. Simulation-based analysis shows that the proposed methods yield conservative, but credible,GES dispatch strategies and reduced penalty cost by incorporating DDUs in the constraints and leveraging data-driven parameter identification. This results in improved availability and performance of coordinated GES units.
Wind energy forecasting with missing values within a fully conditional specification framework
2022ArticleIn press/Available onlineJournal paper
H. Wen, P. Pinson, J. Gu, Z. Jin
International Journal of Forecasting, in press/available online
Publication year: 2022
Wind power forecasting is essential to power system operation and electricity markets. As abundant data became available thanks to the deployment of measurement infrastructures and the democratization of meteorological modeling, extensive data-driven approaches have been developed within both point and probabilistic forecasting frameworks. These models usually assume that the dataset at hand is complete and overlook missing value issues that often occur in practice. In contrast to that common approach, we rigorously consider here the wind power forecasting problem in the presence of missing values, by jointly accommodating imputation and forecasting tasks. Our approach allows inferring the joint distribution of input features and target variables at the model estimation stage based on incomplete observations only. We place emphasis on a fully conditional specification method owing to its desirable properties, e.g., being assumption-free when it comes to these joint distributions. Then, at the operational forecasting stage, with available features at hand, one can issue forecasts by implicitly imputing all missing entries. The approach is applicable to both point and probabilistic forecasting, while yielding competitive forecast quality within both simulation and real-world case studies. It confirms that by using a powerful universal imputation method based on fully conditional specification, the proposed universal imputation approach is superior to the common impute-then-predict approach, especially in the context of probabilistic forecasting.