# 2007-2012 (DTU Compute)

## Journal Publications

- P. Pinson, R. Hagedorn (2012). Verification of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of wind speed against analyses and observations.
*Meteorological Applications***19**(4), pp. 484-500 (pdf) - P. Pinson (2012). Adaptive calibration of (u,v)-wind ensemble forecasts.
*Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society***138**(666), pp. 1273-1284 (pdf) - P. Pinson (2012). Very short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power with generalized logit-Normal distributions.
*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C***61**(4), pp. 555-576 (pdf) - P. Pinson, G. Reikard, J. Bidlot (2012). Probabilistic forecasting of the wave energy flux.
*Applied Energy***93**, pp. 364-370 (pdf) - P.-J. Trombe, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2012). A general probabilistic forecasting framework for offshore wind power fluctuations.
*Energies***5**(3), pp. 621-657 (pdf) - P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2012). Adaptive modeling and forecasting of wind power fluctuations with Markov-switching autoregressive models.
*Journal of Forecasting***31**(4), pp. 281-313 (pdf) - J.-M. Morales, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2012). A transmission-cost-based model to estimate the amount of market-integrable wind resources.
*IEEE Transactions on Power Systems***27**(2), pp. 1060-1069 - P. Pinson, R. Girard (2012). Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation.
*Applied Energy***96**, pp. 12-20 (pdf) - C.L. Vincent, P. Pinson, G. Giebel (2011). Wind fluctuations over the North Sea.
*International Journal of Climatology***31**(11), pp. 1584-1595 - G. Reikard, P. Pinson, J. Bidlot (2011). Forecasting ocean wave energy – The ECMWF wave model with time-series methods.
*Ocean Engineering*,**38**(10), pp. 1089-1099 - C. Gallego, P. Pinson, H. Madsen, A. Costa, A. Cuerva (2011). Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics – Application to offshore very short-term forecasting.
*Applied Energy*,**88**(11), pp. 4087-4096 (pdf) - J. Tastu, P. Pinson, E. Kotwa, H.Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen (2011). Spatio-temporal analysis and modeling of wind power forecast errors.
*Wind Energy***14**(1), pp. 43-60 (pdf) - F. Thordarson, H.Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen, P. Pinson (2010). Conditional weighted combination of wind power forecasts.
*Wind Energy***13**(8), pp. 751-763. (pdf) - P. Pinson, G. Kariniotakis (2010). Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation.
*IEEE Transactions on Power Systems***25**(4), pp. 1845-1856. (pdf) - C.L. Vincent, G. Giebel, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2010). Resolving non-stationary spectral signals in wind speed time-series using the Hilbert-Huang transform.
*Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology***49**(2), pp. 253-267. (pdf) - P. Pinson, P. McSharry, H. Madsen (2010). Reliability diagrams for nonparametric density forecasts of continuous variables: accounting for serial correlation.
*Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society***136**(646), pp. 77-90. (pdf) - P. Giabardo, M. Zugno, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2010). Feedback, competition and stochasticity in a day-ahead electricity market.
*Energy Economics***32**(2), pp. 292-301. (pdf) - T. Jonsson, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2010). On the market impact of wind energy forecasts.
*Energy Economics***32**(2), pp. 313-320. (pdf) - P. Pinson, H.Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen, G. Kariniotakis (2009). Skill forecasting from ensemble predictions of wind power.
*Applied Energy***86**(7-8), pp. 1326-1334. (pdf) - P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2009). Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting at Horns Rev.
*Wind Energy***12**(2), pp. 137-155 (special issue on Offshore Wind Energy). (pdf) - P. Pinson, G. Papaefthymiou, B. Klockl, H.Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen (2009). From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production.
*Wind Energy***12**(1), pp. 51-62. (pdf) - P. Pinson, T.S. Nielsen, H.Aa. Nielsen, N.K. Poulsen, H. Madsen (2009). Temperature prediction at critical points in district heating systems.
*European Journal of Operational Research***194**(1), pp. 163-176. (pdf) - B. Klockl, G. Papaefthymiou, P. Pinson (2008). Probabilistic tools for planning and operating power systems with distributed energy storage.
*E&I Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik***125**(12), pp. 460-465. - P. Pinson, L.E.A. Christensen, H. Madsen, P.E. Sørensen, M.H. Donovan, L.E. Jensen (2008). Regime-switching modelling of the fluctuations of offshore wind generation.
*Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics***96**(12), pp. 2327-2347. (pdf) - P. Pinson, H.Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen, T.S. Nielsen (2008). Local linear regression with adaptive orthogonal fitting for the wind power application.
*Statistics and Computing***18**(1), pp. 59-71. (pdf) - P. Sørensen, N.A. Cutululis, A. Vigueras-Rodriguez, H. Madsen, P. Pinson, L.E. Jensen, J. Hjerrild, M. Donovan (2008). Modelling of power fluctuations from large offshore wind farms.
*Wind Energy***11**(1), pp. 29-43. - P. Pinson, C. Chevallier, G. Kariniotakis (2007). Trading wind generation from short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power.
*IEEE Trans. on Power Systems***22**(3), pp. 1148-1156. (pdf) - P. Pinson, S. Lozano, I. Marti, G. Kariniotakis, G. Giebel & the Pow’Wow consortium (2007). ViLab: a Virtual Laboratory for collaborative research on wind power forecasting.
*Wind Engineering***31**(2), pp. 117-121.(pdf) - P. Pinson, H.Aa. Nielsen, J.K. Møller, H. Madsen, G. Kariniotakis (2007). Nonparametric probabilistic forecasts of wind power: required properties and evaluation.
*Wind Energy***10**(6), pp. 497-516. (pdf)

## Broader Readership

- T.I. Petroliagis, P. Pinson (2012). Early indication of extreme winds utilizing the Extreme Forecast Index.
*ECMWF Newsletter***132**, pp. 13-19 (pdf) - P. Pinson, G. Giebel, H. Madsen (2008). Forecasting of wind generation – The wind power of tomorrow on your screen today!
*WindTech International***4**(8), pp. 32-35 (pdf)

## Conference Proceedings

- H. Madsen, P. Pinson, J.K. Moeller (2012). A review of the state-of-the-art in forecasting of short-term renewable energy generation. TIES 2012, Conference of The International Environmetrics Society, Hyderabad, India (invited)
- S. Otterson, P. Pinson (2012). Are ramp forecasts really useful? EWEA Annual Event 2012, Copenhagen, Denmark
- S. Alessandrini, S. Sperati, P. Pinson (2012). The use of different ensemble forecasting systems for wind power prediction on a real case in the South of Italy. EWEA Annual Event 2012, Copenhagen, Denmark
- P.-J. Trombe, P. Pinson, and co-authors (2012). Weather radars – A new pair of eyes for offshore

wind farms? EWEA Annual Event 2012, Copenhagen, Denmark (best poster award) - P. Pinson, M. Fortin, H. Madsen (2012). Wind-wave probabilistic forecasting for offshore applications. RAVE 2012, Research at Alpha Ventus Conference, Bremerhaven, Germany (invited)
- P. Pinson, T. Jonsson, M. Zugno, J.M. Morales, H. Madsen, B. Klockl (2012). Statistical analysis of the impact of wind power on market quantities and power flows. IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting 2012, San Diego, California, US (invited)
- J. Tastu, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2012). Spatio-temporal correction of wind power probabilistic forecasts. 11th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks, Lisbon, Portugal
- S. Alessandrini, S. Sperati, C. Diego, A. Pitto, P. Pinson (2012). An application and verication of ensemble forecasting of wind power to calculate operational risk indices for power grids. 11th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks, Lisbon, Portugal
- J. Tastu, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2012). Accounting for spatio-temporal eects when forecasting wind power generation. CompSust’12, Third conference on Computational Sustainability, Copenhagen, 2012
- M. Zugno, J.M. Morales, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2012). Modeling demand response in electricity retail markets as a Stackelberg game. IAEE 2012 European Conference, International Association for Energy Economics, Venice, Italy
- P. Pinson, P.-J. Trombe, C.L. Vincent, H. Madsen (2012). Weather radars for offshore wind power applications. 11th EMS Annual Meeting and 9th European Conference on Applied Climatology, Lodz, Poland
- P. Pinson, M. Fortin, H. Madsen (2012). Multivariate calibrated ensemble forecasts of wind and waves. 11th EMS Annual Meeting and 9th European Conference on Applied Climatology, Lodz, Poland
- P.-J. Trombe, P. Pinson, H. Madsen, N.E. Jensen, L.B. Pedersen, A. Sommer, N.F. Le (2011). Can weather radars help monitoring and forecasting wind power fluctuations at large offshore wind farms? 10th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems, Aarhus, Denmark (pdf)
- A. Bossavy, R. Girard, N. Siebert, P. Pinson, and G. Kariniotakis (2011). Forecasting uncertainty around the timing of large variation of wind power. 11th European Meteorological Society (EMS) and 10th European Conference on Applied Meteorology (ECAM), Berlin, Germany (outstanding poster award)
- P. Pinson (2011). Ensemble and probabilistic forecasting of (u,v)-wind for the energy application. 11th European Meteorological Society (EMS) and 10th European Conference on Applied Meteorology (ECAM), Berlin, Germany (oral presentation)
- S. Alessandrini, P. Pinson, S. Sperati, G. Decimi (2011). The influence of the new ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System resolution on wind power forecast accuracy and uncertainty estimation. 11th European Meteorological Society (EMS) and 10th European Conference on Applied Meteorology (ECAM), Berlin, Germany (oral presentation)
- P. Pinson, T. Petroliagis, R. Girard, G. Kariniotakis, F. Chavaux, R. Buizza (2011). Benefits from the increased contribution of the European weather forecasting community to wind power prediction. Annual EWEA Event 2011, Brussels, Belgium (oral presentation)
- P.-J. Trombe, P. Pinson, S.C. Thomsen, H. Madsen (2011). Radar@Sea – Towards improving short-term wind (power) forecasts based on a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) installed at an offshore wind farm. European Geophysical Union Conference 2011, Vienna, Austria
- S. Alessandrini, G. Decimi, P. Pinson, R. Hagedorn, S. Sperati (2010). An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecast. EMS 2010 Conference, European Meteorological Society, Zurich, Switzerland (oral presentation)
- T. Petroliagis, M. Jacques Coper, L. von Bremen, R. Hagedorn, P. Pinson, D. Heinemann (2010). Prediction of extreme wind events by utilisation of a weather-type Extreme Forecast Index – Part I: Early warnings of extreme wind events utilizing DWD objective weather type classification & ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System Extreme Forecast Index. DEWEK 2010 Conference, Germany Wind Power Conference, Bremen, Germany
- M. Zugno, T. Jonsson, P. Pinson (2010). Decision making strategies for trading wind power in deregulated energy markets. IAEE’s 2010 Conference, Rio do Janeiro, Brazil (oral presentation)
- T. Jonsson, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2010). On the market impact of wind power (forecasts) – An overview of the effects of large-scale integration of wind power on the electricity market. IAEE’s 2010 Conference, Rio do Janeiro, Brazil (oral presentation)
- C.L. Vincent, A. Hahmann, P. Pinson, G. Giebel (2010). Open cellular convection and large wind fluctuations over the North Sea. European Geophysical Union Conference 2010, Vienna, Austria
- M. Zugno, T. Jonsson, P. Pinson (2010). Trading wind energy in a liberalized electricity market: a real-world test case in Eastern Denmark. EWEC’10, European Wind Energy Conference, Varsaw, Poland
- P. Pinson, and the SafeWind project consortium (2010). Defining a catalogue of extreme events. EWEC’10, European Wind Energy Conference, Varsaw, Poland (oral presentation)
- J. Tastu, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2010). Multivariate conditional parametric models for a spatio-temporal analysis of short-term wind power forecast errors. EWEC’10, European Wind Energy Conference, Scientific Track, Varsaw, Poland (oral presentation)
- C. Draxl, C. Vincent, A. Hahmann, G. Giebel, P. Pinson (2009). Variability forecasts for wind farms using high resolution initial conditions. 8th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power and Transmission Networks, Bremen, Germany
- P.-J. Trombe, P. Pinson (2009). Modeling and forecasting of wind power fluctuations at large offshore wind farms. EOW’09, Offshore Wind Conference, Stockholm, Sweden (oral presentation)
- B. Klockl, P. Pinson (2009). Effects of increasing wind power penetration on the physical operation of large electricity market systems. IEEE-CIGRE Symposium 2009, Calgary, Canada (oral presentation) (pdf)
- P. Pinson, P. McSharry, H. Madsen (2009). On the reliability assessment of density forecasts of continuous variables with reliability diagrams. 29th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Hong Kong (oral presentation)
- P. Pinson, G. Papaefthymiou, B. Klockl, J. Verboomen (2009). Dynamic sizing of energy storage for hedging wind power forecast uncertainty. IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting 2009, Calgary, Canada (oral presentation) (pdf)
- T. Jonsson, P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2009). The impact of wind power forecasts on electricity price behaviour in Denmark. EWEC’09, European Wind Energy Conference, Marseille, France
- T. Jonsson, P. Pinson, H. Madsen, H.Aa. Nielsen (2009). Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices and regulation costs in markets with significant wind power penetration. EWEC’09, European Wind Energy Conference, Marseille, France (oral presentation)
- C. Vincent, G. Giebel, P. Pinson, et al. (2009). Characterisation of wind variability at the Horns Rev wind farm. EWEC’09, European Wind Energy Conference, Marseille, France, 2009 (oral presentation)
- C. Vincent, C. Draxl, G. Giebel, P. Pinson, et al. (2009). Spectral verification of a mesoscale ensemble. EWEC’09, European Wind Energy Conference, Marseille, France, 2009
- G. Giebel, P. Pinson, I. Marti et al. Prediction of waves, wakes and wind – The results of the POW’WOW project. EWEC’09, European Wind Energy Conference, Marseille, France
- P. Pinson, H. Madsen, H.Aa. Nielsen, T.S. Nielsen, N.K. Poulsen (2008). Modeling the nonlinear temperature response of district heating systems for model predictive control applications. 11th Annual Symposium on District heating and Cooling, Reykjavik, Iceland (oral presentation) (pdf)
- P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2008). From meteorological ensembles to reliable probabilistic forecasts of wind generation. 28th Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Nice (invited – oral presentation) (pdf)
- G. Papaefthymiou, P. Pinson (2008). Modeling of spatial dependence in wind power forecast uncertainty. PMAPS’08, IEEE Conference ,`Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems’, Puerto Rico (invited – oral presentation)
- P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2008). Probabilistic forecasting of wind power at the minute time-scale with Markov-switching autoregressive models. PMAPS’08, IEEE Conference, `Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems’, Puerto Rico
- B. Klockl, G. Papaefthymiou, P. Pinson (2008). Probabilistic tools for planning and operating power systems with distributed energy storage. CIGRE 2008, Paris, France (oral presentation)
- P. Pinson, H. Madsen, P.E. Sørensen, J.R. Kristoffersen, L.E. Jensen (2008). Forecasting the potential magnitude of power fluctuations large offshore wind farms with an adaptive Markov-switching approach. EWEC’08, European Wind Energy Conference, Scientific Track, Brussels, Belgium (oral presentation)
- P. Pinson, H. Madsen, G. Giebel, G. Kariniotakis, L. von Bremen, I. Marti (2008). Forecasting of wind generation: recent advances and future challenges. EWEC’08, European Wind Energy Conference, Brussels, Belgium (oral presentation) (pdf)
- T. Jonsson, H. Madsen, P. Pinson. The effects of wind power forecasts on electricity spot prices in Denmark (2008). EWEC’08, European Wind Energy Conference, Brussels, Belgium (pdf)
- J. Vlasova, E. Kotwa, H.Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen, P. Pinson (2008). Spatio-temporal modeling of wind power prediction errors. EWEC’08, European Wind Energy Conference, Brussels, Belgium (pdf)
- C. Moehrlen, J. Jørgensen, P. Pinson, H. Madsen, B. Lange, U. Cali, G. Giebel, J. Tøfting, J.R. Kristoffersen (2008). HRensembleHR project progress in applying short-range ensemble forecasts for offshore wind power. EWEC’08, European Wind Energy Conference, Brussels, Belgium
- G. Giebel, P. Pinson, U. Focken, M. Lange, R. Meyer, G. Kariniotakis (2008). Best practice in the use of short-term forecasting – Results from 2 workshops organized the POW’WOW European Coordination Action. EWEC’08, European Wind Energy Conference, Brussels, Belgium (oral presentation)
- G. Giebel, P. Pinson, I. Marti, S. Lozano, G. Kariniotakis, L. von Bremen, A. Sood (2008). Virtual laboratories for short-term forecasting and other benchmarks of the POW’WOW European Coordination Action. EWEC’08, European Wind Energy Conference, Brussels, Belgium
- C. Moehrlen, J. Jørgensen, P. Pinson, H. Madsen, J.R. Kristoffersen (2007). HRensembleHR – High Resolution Ensemble for Horns Rev. EOW’07, Offshore Wind Conference, Berlin, Germany (oral presentation)
- G. Giebel, P. Meibom, P. Pinson, G. Kariniotakis (2007). Towards smart integration of wind generation. NWPC’07, Nordic Wind Power Conference, Roskilde, Denmark (oral presentation)
- P. Pinson, H. Madsen, P.E. Sørensen, N.A. Cutululis (2007). Adaptive modelling of offshore wind power fluctuations. NWPC’07, Nordic Wind Power Conference, Roskilde, Denmark. (pdf)
- P. Pinson, H.Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen, G. Kariniotakis (2007). Skill forecasting from different wind power ensemble prediction methods. EAWE Conference 2007, The 2nd Conference on `The Science of Making Torque from Wind’, Lyngby, Denmark (oral presentation) (pdf)
- P. Pinson, G. Papaefthymiou, B. Klockl, H.Aa. Nielsen (2007). Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production. IEEE PowerTech Conference 2007, Lausanne, Switzerland (oral presentation) (pdf)
- P. Pinson, L.E.A. Christensen, H. Madsen, P.E. Sørensen, M.H. Donovan, L.E. Jensen (2007). Fluctuations of offshore wind generation: statistical modelling. EWEC’07, European Wind Energy Conference, Scientific Track, Milan, Italy (oral presentation) (pdf)
- H.Aa. Nielsen, P. Pinson, L.E. Christiansen, T.S. Nielsen, H. Madsen, J.Badger, G. Giebel, H.F. Ravn (2007). Improvement and automation of tools for short term wind power forecasting. EWEC’07, European Wind Energy Conference, Scientific Track, Milan, Italy (oral presentation)
- G. Kariniotakis, P. Pinson, S. Lozano, I. Marti & the Pow’Wow consortium (2007). Pow’Wow virtual laboratories for wind resource assessment & forecasting. EWEC’07, European Wind Energy Conference, Milan, Italy
- L. Landberg, G. Giebel, J. Badger, H.Aa. Nielsen, T.S. Nielsen, H. Madsen, P. Pinson, K. Sattler, H. Feddersen, H. Vedel (2007). Ensemble predictions: Understanding uncertainties. American WindPower Conference 2007, Los Angeles, California (oral presentation)

## Technical reports

- P. Pinson, R. Hagedorn (2011). Verification of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of wind speed against observations. ECMWF Tech. Memo. no 646, March 2011 (pdf)
- T. Petroliagis, P. Pinson (2011). Early warnings and alerts of extreme wind events utilizing DWD objective weather type classification methodology and ECMWF EPS Extreme Forecast Index. Deliverable Report Dp-5.5 of the EU-FP7 project SafeWind, April 2011.
- P. Pinson (2010). On probabilistic forecasting of wind power time-series. Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark, Tech. Rep. IMM-2010-06, April 2010.
- P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2009). Adaptive modeling and forecasting of wind power fluctuations with Markov-switching autoregressive models. Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark, Tech. Rep. IMM-2009-11, October 2009
- P. Pinson, H. Madsen (2009). Ensemble-based forecasting at Horns Rev: Ensemble conversion and kernel dressing. Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark, Tech. Rep. IMM-2009-1, January 2009 (pdf)
- P. Pinson, T.S. Nielsen, H.Aa. Nielsen, N.K. Poulsen, H. Madsen (2007). Temperature prediction in district heating systems with cFIR models. Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark, Tech. Rep. IMM-2007-10, May 2007. (pdf)
- P. Pinson, H. Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen (2007). Robust estimation of time-varying coefficient functions – Application to the modeling of wind power production. Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark, Tech. Rep. IMM-2007-09, May 2007. (pdf)
- P. Pinson, H. Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen, M. Lange, G. Kariniotakis (2007). Methods for the estimation of the uncertainty of wind power forecasts. Anemos project deliverable report D3.1b, Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark, March 2007. (pdf)
- P. Pinson, T.S. Nielsen (2007). Statistical models and methods for wind power forecasting. Anemos project deliverable report D3.1, Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark, March 2007.
- P. Pinson, J.K. Møller, H.Aa. Nielsen, H. Madsen, G. Kariniotakis (2007). Evaluation of nonparametric probabilistic forecasts of wind power. Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Technical University of Denmark, Tech. Rep. IMM-2007-02, January 2007. (pdf)