It is a real pleasure to see how the Energy Analytics & Markets group has been growing over the last year. We have now reached a critical size of around 15 members or more, considering all our new members, guests, etc. Besides, the set of skills of the group has broadened and gives us an even stronger international scientific profile. 3 more positions are being filled right now (2 faculty and 1 Ph.D.), while a lot of intense discussions are taking place on how we will sharpen our profile in the future…
You will hear from us soon in the future, regarding some of our new data to be shared, and cutting-edge ideas on energy analytics and markets!
Please have a look at it:
Olivier and Henning recently defended their M.Sc. thesis at DTU Informatics. They performed some very interesting work in collaboration with DONG Energy on the idea of using price signals for influencing consumption, and eventually optimize the integration of fluctuating energy source like wind power. The best is to see their own explanation on this short video prepared for Grøn Dyst:
The link to the summary of their M.Sc. thesis: link
The Radar@Sea project (sponsored by the Danish Public Service Obligation – PSO) is looking at using radar images from a local area weather radar (LAWR) installed at the Horns Rev wind farm in Denmark in order to better characterize, model and forecast wind power fluctuations (for temporal resolutions of a few minutes to a few hours ahead).
Here is a small sample video where one can compare the evolution of wind power generation at Horns Rev with the radar images collected over a 2-day period… The wind farm is represented by the small white square near the middle of the radar images, while the “white stain” on the right is the coast of Western Jutland in Denmark, where the Horns Rev wind farm is located.
The link to the video as posted on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YShQDCdVykM
More results to come soon! – The Radar@Sea project team -
It seems my name was used for a fictional character in a book that just came out, titled “La declinazione del nulla” and written by Luigi Lazzaro. The book is in Italian, and available at the following link: http://ilmiolibro.kataweb.it/schedalibro.asp?id=629635
If you want to know more about the quality and accuracy of the ECMWF ensemble forecasts of wind speed, you should have a look at a paper that my collaborator Renate Hagedorn and I just got accepted for publication in the journal Meteorological Applications. We look there at verification against analyses and observations at app. 700 synoptic stations over Europe… The good news is that these forecasts are really good! The maybe not-so-good one is that verification against analysis or observations gives very different pictures of the forecast quality.
The preprint of that paper is available on this site… I will post a few figures from the paper soon!
Hej all – we have an open position for a Ph.D. project focusing on wind power forecasting. It is part of a new research project aiming at improving the link between meteorological and statistical methods for that purpose. A better integration between these two approaches will improve the skill and reliability of wind power prediction tools, as well as providing an integrated planning environment for better integration of wind power in the energy system. See the announcement: pdf
Do not hesitate to contact me (pp -at- imm.dtu.dk) and/or Henrik Madsen (hm -at- imm.dtu.dk)!
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been working on the ERA-Interim project in order to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40. This new reanalysis will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century, with a lot of new features. Note that the paper on the previous reanalysis performed by ECMWF may well be the most-cited ever article in Atmospheric Sciences. Potential applications for renewable energy assessment and studies are substantial(!)
You can read that one at the following link: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
Gordon Reikard, Jean Bidlot and I recently had a paper published in the scientific journal Ocean Engineering on the forecasting of the wave energy flux using forecasts of relevant variables from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), combined with statistical methods. A follow-up piece is under finalization, about the probabilistic forecasting of the wave energy flux. I will keep you posted…
The link to the paper: link
If not yet, you should get and read these two books!
“Prosperity without growth – Economics for a finite planet” – In a very accessible manner, Tim Jackson explains how we may be forced to live differently since constant growth is not sustainable. Great read if you have difficulties convincing yourself that a world without growth is not only an utopia…
“Sustainable energy – without the hot air!” – Original and solid treatment of preconceived ideas regarding various forms of energies. David JC MacKay has produced a book that will undoubtedly become a reference for a broad audience interested in energy issues.